Migration

Migration plays a critical role in the Model of Development of Technological Civilization (MDTC), particularly during the smuta and modern periods. It serves as both a response to resource scarcity and a mechanism for redistributing labor and resources.

Migration during Modern periods

In modern periods, migration is often driven by the rapid expansion of industrial centers and the need for labor. Key characteristics include:

  • Urbanization: People move from rural areas to cities to work in industries powered by key technologies.
  • Colonization: Migration to newly discovered or underdeveloped SADAT (e.g., the Americas during the Age of Discovery) to exploit resources and expand economic activity.
  • Forced migration: In some cases, groups are displaced or relocated to facilitate modernization efforts (e.g., the transatlantic slave trade, forced collectivization in the USSR).

Migration during modern periods often accelerates development by concentrating labor and resources in areas of high productivity.

Migration during Smuta periods

In smuta periods, migration is typically a response to instability, resource scarcity, and conflict. Key characteristics include:

  • Refugee movements: Large-scale displacement of populations due to war, famine, or political collapse.
  • Internal migration: Movement within countries as people seek more favorable regions (e.g., areas with better access to resources or less conflict).
  • Brain drain: Skilled workers and intellectuals migrate to more stable regions, exacerbating challenges in their home countries.

Migration during smuta periods can lead to significant demographic shifts, with some regions becoming depopulated while others experience overpopulation and strain on resources.

Migration and Favourable Countries

Favourable countries often become destinations for migrants during smuta periods due to their relative stability and resource abundance. This influx of migrants can:

  • Provide a labor force to develop underutilized resources.
  • Introduce cultural and technological innovations.
  • Create social and political challenges, such as integration and resource allocation.

Historical Examples

  • European migration to the Americas: During the Age of Discovery, migration to the Americas provided new SADAT for development and alleviated resource pressures in Europe.
  • Post-World War II migration: Displaced populations in Europe relocated to more stable regions, contributing to reconstruction and economic growth.
  • Current smuta (2020–2050): Migration from non-favourable countries (e.g., parts of Africa, the Middle East) to favourable countries (e.g., Canada, Scandinavia) is expected to increase as resource scarcity and instability worsen.

Implications

Migration is both a symptom and a driver of the cycles described in the MDTC theory. While it can alleviate pressures in some regions, it can also create new challenges in others. Understanding migration patterns is essential for predicting the outcomes of smuta and modern periods.