Favourable countries

During the smuta, countries "fall to their resource basis"—globalization ends, regionalization begins, and old power centers lose access to distant resources. The base of power shifts to renewable resources and local self-sufficiency.

The countries that have a high ratio of local key resources (food, energy, key production) to their population are called "favourable countries." These countries are better positioned to maintain stability and preserve societal structures during the smuta.

Measuring Country Favourability

Country favourability can be measured by dividing SADAT by population.

In the current smuta (2020-2050) the list of favourable countries and areas is:

Ukraine
Canada
Kazakhstan
Australia
New Zealand
Azerbaijan
Botswana?
Guyana
Galifaks
Costa Rica
Mongolia?
Panama
Scandinavia
Uruguay

The countries of average favourability are:

Israel
USA

The non-favourable countries are:

Russia
China
India
Turkey
France
Germany

Types of non-favourability:

"Wild west": Too much territory, not enough people (e.g., Russia, Canada in some regions).
"Harsh east": Too many people, not enough territory or resources (e.g., China, India).

Outcomes for non-favourable countries:

Non-favourable countries are likely to experience fragmentation. Favourable regions within these countries may separate to form new societies or states. On favourable territories, the following are more likely to be preserved:

Free market
Civil rights
Democracy
Freedom of speech
Emancipation

Implications:

The smuta period highlights the importance of local resource availability and self-sufficiency. Favourable countries are better equipped to navigate the challenges of this phase, while non-favourable countries face significant risks of collapse and reorganization.