Basic cycle of technological civilization

  1. Modern - a period of rapid technological and social change
  2. Smuta - a period of social and political instability
  3. Stable development - a period of relative stability and gradual change
Period Key competing advantage Priority of Resources
Modern Consolidation of power Non-renewable resources
Smuta Resource base Mixed (caused by the transition from non-renewable to renewable)
Stable development Renewable resources Renewable resources

Why does this switch happen?

During the modern the key competing advantage is the consolidation of power, which usually works better with non-renewable resources (you can get them faster and easier and use for consolidation that leads to speeding up the progress in key technologies that leads to even more consolidation of power).

The SADAT is required for development. If there is enough of it (e.g. America is discovered and waiting to be explored), the people start to actively (and aggressively) explore it. If there is not enough SADAT, the people start to fight each other for the available SADAT (e.g. World War II - Juri Gagarin didn't discover the new "America" in SADAT, or Thirty Years War)

The discoveries of new SADAT ease the wars and give the energy a way to exit the system and be applied to the development of the new SADAT.

Each modern seem to be have the information revolution closer to the end. The information revolution is a period of rapid technological and social change caused by the introduction of new information technologies.

The theory assumes a non-linear progression of "modern," "smuta," and "stable development," which may have overlapping or cyclical patterns and depend on the place where the params are measured (like a water flow), but for the sake of simplicity, the theory is presented in a semi-linear "single-wave" format.

The moderns are period of development that is similar to laminar flow in water and gases, and the smutas are similar to turbulent flow.

  • Age of Vikings / Age of Crusades (Modern)
    • 1095 – 1291
    • Information revolution?
  • Unknown smuta (Smuta)
    • ???
  • Unknown stable development (Stable development)
    • ???
  • Age of Discovery / Reformation (Modern)
    • 1418 – 1618
    • Information revolution
      • 1450? – 1618
      • Printing press
  • Thirty Years War (Smuta)
    • 1618 – 1648
  • Unknown stable development (Stable development)
    • ???
  • Age of Enlightenment / Industrial Revolution (Modern)
    • 1760 – 2020
    • 1890 - if the new America was discovered near this period, there wouldn't be World War I (more SADAT would be available for development)
    • Great Depression wasn't a smuta but more of a future-shock of the fast technological development
    • 1920
      • After World War I, companies that made tanks started making tractors
      • It increased labor productivity
      • Large amount of farmers became unnecessary
      • Unemployment
      • People fled to the USA
      • 1923 - US closed the borders for migrants
      • If that wouldn't happen, there probably wouldn't be World War II (more SADAT would be available for development)
    • 1930
      • Dust storms in the USA due to the messed-up use of agricultural land
      • Classic of moderns - total burn out of resources aiming to get the maximum speed of development
    • Information revolution
      • 1910 – 2020
      • Telegraph
      • Radio
      • Television
      • Internet
  • Second Thirty Years War (Smuta)
    • 2020 – 2050?